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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-20 13:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 201138 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with the remnants of Harvey. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once again as it moves west-northwestward across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next couple of days, but they could become slightly more conducive for development by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or Florida. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure. This system is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a day or so. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi


Category:Transportation and Logistics

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-20 07:16:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 200515 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Harvey, which has degenerated into a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with the remnants of Harvey. Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air are expected to inhibit development today. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for regeneration by Monday when the system moves west-northwestward over the northwest Caribbean Sea, and interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions could become slightly more conducive for development once the system is near the northern Bahamas or Florida later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure. The system is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a couple of days. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown


Category:Transportation and Logistics

Remnants of Harvey Graphics

2017-08-20 04:37:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 02:37:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 03:24:08 GMT


Category:Transportation and Logistics

Remnants of Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 11

2017-08-20 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 200233 TCDAT4 Remnants Of Harvey Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Harvey earlier this evening and was unable to close off a center of circulation. The plane found a well-defined wind shift across the wave axis, and winds decreased as the plane flew south along the axis toward a pressure minimum south of 14N. Harvey has therefore degenerated into an open wave, and this will be the last advisory. Maximum surface winds, as measured by the plane, remain 30 kt. As a side note, the associated deep convection has continued to lose organization and is now oriented linearly from northeast to southwest along the wave axis. Harvey's remnants are moving quickly westward with a motion of 275/19 kt. A fast westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days as the wave moves along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. A break in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf of Mexico could cause the system to turn northwestward and slow down as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche in 3-5 days. The global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, deserve a lot of credit for showing Harvey dissipating, or at least not strengthening, over the Caribbean Sea. Even though the vertical shear that has been plaguing the system is expected to diminish in 24-48 hours, the system's fast motion and ambient dry air will likely keep Harvey's remnants from regenerating into a tropical cyclone in the near term. For that reason, the solutions shown by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET appear most reasonable, keeping the system as an open wave, or possibly regenerating to a tropical depression before it reaches Belize and the Yucatan coast. Regeneration is also possible if the remnants emerge over the Bay of Campeche. The remnants of Harvey will be monitored for signs of regeneration and for the possibility of bringing tropical storm conditions to Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. If necessary, advisories could be resumed and tropical storm watches or warnings issued before Harvey regains tropical cyclone status. Please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for this system's potential to regenerate into a tropical cyclone, beginning with the 2 AM issuance on Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.3N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF HARVEY 12H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg


Category:Transportation and Logistics

Remnants of Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2017-08-20 04:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 200232 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS ...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BERG


Category:Transportation and Logistics

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