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Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
2019-09-24 10:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:58:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:58:00 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-09-24 10:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240855 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with many curved bands and a newly formed central dense overcast. In fact, an overnight AMSR2 microwave pass showed that Lorenzo already had a very small central core. The initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt, in accordance with the latest TAFB classification. Conditions seem to be ripe for further intensification given that the storm is over fairly warm waters, with humid mid-level air, and weak/moderate shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index is giving a 53 percent chance of Lorenzo intensifying 25 kt during the next 24 hours, which seems very reasonable since it now has a tight inner core, and after noting the storm just strengthened 25 kt during the previous 24 hours. Thus the intensity forecast is raised from the last one, showing the initial period of very quick strengthening, and is at the upper edge of the guidance. It is worth noting that all of the global models show Lorenzo becoming a fairly large and powerful hurricane within the next 5 days, and the new wind radii forecast reflects this likelihood. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. This general course is expected for the next couple of days while Lorenzo moves beneath the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. A break in the ridge should occur in a few days over the central Atlantic, causing the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and north-northwestward over the weekend. The new forecast is shifted slightly northward in the short term, but is close to the previous NHC prediction thereafter, closest to the corrected-consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 12.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 12.6N 30.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 13.3N 32.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 13.9N 35.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 14.4N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 17.0N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 20.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 23.0N 46.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-24 10:55:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:55:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:55:18 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-09-24 10:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 240854 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 6
2019-09-24 10:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240853 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 28.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 28.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn the northwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics