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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-15 12:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 151134 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Sara, located near the northern coast of Honduras. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-15 09:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 08:46:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2024 09:22:52 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-11-15 09:45:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150845 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 There hasnt been much observational data near the center of Sara overnight and early this morning aside from the 1-minute GOES-16 data, which shows a large area of deep convection across northern Honduras and over the Gulf of Honduras. Belize radar has provided some information, but the center is still just beyond the range of this radar, and there aren't any surface observations near the center either. Finding the center has been challenging overnight. Recent GOES-16 imagery shows increased mid-level rotation over water about 40 miles north of the advisory position, but there is no evidence of any low-level center re-formation at this time. The initial position is based on a combination of the satellite imagery and continuity from the previous NHC forecast. The initial intensity estimate remains unchanged from the previous advisory at 40 kt. Sara is estimated to be moving westward or 280/8 kt. A mid-level ridge positioned to the NW of Sara over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Sara to slow down today. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward toward Florida late in the weekend, allowing for Sara to turn west-northwestward by late Saturday across the Gulf of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize early Sunday. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the track, and the new NHC track forecast is mostly an update of the previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids. While environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for some strengthening, Sara's relatively broad structure and proximity to land are likely to prevent significant intensification during the next 24 hours. Slight strengthening is then forecast while the system is farther offshore before it approaches Belize. The bulk of the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. After Sara moves inland over Belize on Sunday, it should quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC forecast calls for dissipation beyond 72 hours, as in the previous forecast. While most of the global models still indicate that Sara is unlikely to survive its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula, some leftover low-level vorticity from Sara's remnants should merge with an elongated trough or front over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Given the strong wind shear and cooler waters, no tropical redevelopment is expected over the Gulf of Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 16.0N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 16.2N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 17.0N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-11-15 09:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 150844 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 1 4( 5) 8(13) 13(26) 9(35) X(35) X(35) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) GUANAJA 34 92 X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GUANAJA 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Advisory Number 7
2024-11-15 09:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150844 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 85.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 85.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 84.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N 86.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.9N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 85.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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