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Subtropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

2018-07-15 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018 792 FONT12 KNHC 151435 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 1500 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Subtropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 20

2018-07-15 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 728 WTNT32 KNHC 151435 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 ...BERYL MEANDERING OVER THE GULF STREAM CURRENT... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 64.7W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM N OF BERMUDA ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 64.7 West. The storm is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected by tonight, with this motion continuing Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl should begin to weaken tonight when it moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system late tonight or on Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Summary for Subtropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)

2018-07-15 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BERYL MEANDERING OVER THE GULF STREAM CURRENT... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Jul 15 the center of Beryl was located near 38.1, -64.7 with movement ENE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 20

2018-07-15 16:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018 960 WTNT22 KNHC 151435 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 1500 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 64.7W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 64.7W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.0N 63.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 40.8N 61.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.2N 58.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 45.9N 55.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 64.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-07-15 13:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

530 ABNT20 KNHC 151138 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Beryl, located more than 400 miles north of Bermuda. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days. && Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Beryl are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Beryl are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

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