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Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-07-14 22:52:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 007 WTNT42 KNHC 142052 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 While the overall coverage and intensity of convection associated with Beryl has decreased in the past few hours, the remaining convection has become better organized into a curved band. There are also indications that the center may be reforming to the north in response to this band. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on continuity from the previous advisory and a subtropical intensity estimate of 35-40 kt from TAFB. Beryl remains embedded in an upper-level trough that is well defined in GOES-16 airmass imagery, and thus is still a subtropical cyclone rather than a tropical cyclone. The initial motion is 035/12, which is somewhat uncertain due to the possible reformation of the center. Otherwise, there is little change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Beryl is in relatively light southwesterly flow between the subtropical ridge and the mid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer the cyclone generally northeastward for the next two to three days. The guidance has shifted a little to the left of that of the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track is generally a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The intensity guidance is showing little additional development, and the new intensity forecast will reflect this in keeping the intensity at 35 kt for 24 h. However, the center of Beryl will be passing over the Gulf Stream during the next 12-18 h, so it would not surprising if some intensification occurred. After that, the system should decay over cold water with little or no extratropical transition. The new forecast now calls for dissipation before the 72 h point in agreement with the dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 37.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 38.8N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 40.8N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 43.0N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 44.9N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Subtropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2018-07-14 22:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 14 2018 182 FONT12 KNHC 142051 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC SAT JUL 14 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Subtropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 17

2018-07-14 22:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 083 WTNT32 KNHC 142051 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 ...BERYL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.3N 65.2W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM N OF BERMUDA ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 65.2 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Sunday. After that, Beryl should weaken as it moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area by Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)

2018-07-14 22:51:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BERYL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Jul 14 the center of Beryl was located near 37.3, -65.2 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 17

2018-07-14 22:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 14 2018 092 WTNT22 KNHC 142051 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC SAT JUL 14 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 65.2W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 65.2W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 65.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 38.8N 64.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 40.8N 62.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 43.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 44.9N 57.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 65.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

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