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Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-17 15:46:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 14:46:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 15:22:51 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 16
2024-11-17 15:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 171445 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Sara made landfall this morning at around 1400 UTC along the coast of Belize, near Dangriga. Before landfall, Sara made a bit of a convective resurgence near the center, with bursting deep convection and some GLM lightning flashes occuring. Radar out of Belize City also showed a modest attempt at banding on the southern side of the tropical storm. With that said, the surface observations around the circulation of Sara are unimpressive, with the highest sustained wind at Calabash Caye near this convection of only 27 kt. A blend of subjective and objective satellite estimates supported an intensity of 35 kt at landfall and that remains the value for this advisory. The tropical storm has been moving west-northwestward up until landfall, estimated at 290/4 kt. The mid-level ridging that is now steering the cyclone is pivoting more east, and this should result in Sara turning more northwestward or north-northwestward as it moves across the Yucatan, eventually emerging into the Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. However, the system is expected to weaken over land, ultimately degenerating into a trough of low pressure before it moves back over water in the Gulf of Mexico. I will note that track aids extend further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because these aids are tracking the remnant vorticity of the system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone. As discussed yesterday, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara could aid in enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where WPC currently has a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of rain at some locations. These heavy rains are now spreading westward across portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. 3. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected during the next several hours along portions of the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.1N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0000Z 17.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 19.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2024-11-17 15:45:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 171445 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 16
2024-11-17 15:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 171444 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA NOW JUST INLAND OVER BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 88.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 88.4 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn northwestward or north-northwestward with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move further inland over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough by tonight or tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast as the storm moves further inland, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low before it opens up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. Recently, a surface station at Calabash Caye offshore of the Belize mainland reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) with a gust up to 41 mph (67 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area in portions of Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-17 15:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA NOW JUST INLAND OVER BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 9:00 AM CST Sun Nov 17 the center of Sara was located near 17.1, -88.4 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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