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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-18 07:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

822 ABNT20 KNHC 180541 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Joyce, located a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence, located inland over the central Appalachian mountains. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms extending from Jamaica and eastern Cuba westward for a few hundred miles across the northwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with the remnants of Isaac. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for re-development while the system moves west-northwestward to westward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. While development is not expected, brief periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of Jamaica, as well as eastern and central Cuba, during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence Public Advisory Number 75

2018-09-18 04:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics

2018-09-18 04:38:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 02:38:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 03:27:57 GMT

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 22

2018-09-18 04:37:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 065 WTNT45 KNHC 180237 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018 Joyce remains a very resilient tropical cyclone. After an earlier burst of deep convection just east of the low-level center that has since dissipated, a new convective burst has developed just north of the center with a curved convective band trying to develop in the eastern semicircle. All of this convective activity has been occurring despite westerly 850-200-mb vertical wind shear of near 35 kt and in the presence of very dry mid-level air. The initial intensity is being maintained a 30 kt based on earlier 28-kt ASCAT wind data, and the fact that no significant change has occurred to Joyce's low-level appearance in satellite imagery. The initial motion estimate is now 155/06 kt. Joyce is forecast to move around the eastern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located across the eastern Atlantic to the southwest and west of the cyclone. This large-scale steering feature is expected to gradually turn Joyce toward the south overnight and on Tuesday, and then force the cyclone toward the southwest on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC track forecast is to the west of the previous advisory track, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA and HCCA. Convective development during the past 12 hours has been in large part due to the strong atmospheric instability created by very cold 200-mb temperatures near -57 deg C overlaying relatively warm ocean temperatures of 25.5 deg C. A contributing factor to the most recent convective development appears to be enhanced uplift caused by an approaching shortwave trough noted in water vapor imagery between 30W-35W longitude. The latter feature is forecast by most of the global models to cut off south of the Azores and become entangled with Joyce's circulation over the next few days, resulting in a sharp decrease in the vertical wind shear and an increase in atmospheric instability/CAPE by 48 h and beyond, which would aid convective development and re-strengthening. For now, however, the new intensity forecast continues the weakening trend of the previous advisories due to an abundance of very dry mid-level air being entrained into the circulation, which is expected to shut down convective development, causing Joyce to dissipate shortly after 72 h. However, confidence in this forecast scenario is not very high, and some adjustments may be required to subsequent forecasts once the 18/0000Z model guidance becomes available, especially since the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance maintains Joyce as a 30- to 35-kt tropical cyclone through the next 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 33.2N 27.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 32.4N 27.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 31.4N 27.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 30.5N 28.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 29.9N 29.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z 29.2N 33.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2018-09-18 04:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 576 FONT15 KNHC 180234 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

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