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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-06-26 07:04:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 260504 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 25 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dora, located a couple of hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Dora Graphics
2017-06-26 04:49:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 02:49:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 02:49:55 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-06-26 04:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260246 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Dora's cloud pattern has continued to quickly improve this evening. Several well-defined spiral bands wrap around the center and the CDO has become more symmetric and expanded since the previous advisory. Recent microwave imagery suggest that an eye feature has formed within the CDO. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS supported an intensity of 55 kt at 0000 UTC, but with the continued improved structure, the initial intensity has been set to 60 kt for this advisory. Dora is forecast to move over warm water and remain within a low shear environment during the next 12 to 24 hours. These conditions should allow for additional intensification and Dora is likely to become a hurricane by early Monday. The tropical cyclone is forecast to reach cooler waters in about a day, which should begin the weakening process. A faster rate of spin down is expected by late Tuesday as Dora moves over even colder waters and into a more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the ICON consensus through 36 hours, and is in best agreement with the LGEM guidance later in the period. Dora is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical cyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn westward. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies a little south of the TVCN model consensus out of respect for the typically reliable ECMWF which is along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.4N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 17.2N 105.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 18.2N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 19.4N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 19.8N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 20.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 19.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-06-26 04:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 260246 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0300 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 1 5( 6) 51(57) 12(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 43(48) 21(69) 3(72) X(72) X(72) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 1(23) 1(24) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 3(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Dora Public Advisory Number 5
2017-06-26 04:46:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 260246 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 ...DORA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 104.3W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.3 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move parallel to but remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Dora is expected to become a hurricane by early Monday. Weakening is forecast to begin Monday night or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Category:Transportation and Logistics