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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-20 13:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 201139 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kenneth, located a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi


Category:Transportation and Logistics

Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics

2017-08-20 10:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 08:43:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 09:22:48 GMT


Category:Transportation and Logistics

Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2017-08-20 10:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 200838 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0900 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 2 8(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 130W 34 1 4( 5) 17(22) 7(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 21(39) 1(40) X(40) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 25(39) 1(40) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN


Category:Transportation and Logistics

Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 8

2017-08-20 10:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200838 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 The overall cloud pattern of Kenneth has changed little since the previous advisory. The center remains embedded with a fairly symmetric central dense overcast, but there has been no evidence of an eye in infrared satellite pictures overnight. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are between 3.5 and 4.0, which support maintaining an initial wind speed of 60 kt. Kenneth is forecast to remain within a low shear environment and over warm water for another 24 to 36 hours. This should result in strengthening and Kenneth is expected to become a hurricane later today. After that time, decreasing sea surface temperatures and less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause gradual weakening. Late in the period, increasing southwesterly shear should hasten Kenneth's demise and the system is expected to become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance and the IVCN multi-model consensus through 72 hours, but is a little below this guidance at days 4 and 5. Kenneth has been moving generally westward during the past 24 hours and recent satellite fixes suggest that Kenneth's forward motion has slowed to about 13 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous few advisories, with Kenneth expected to move around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. By Tuesday, a developing weakness in the ridge should cause Kenneth to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward late in the period. The early portion of the track forecast has been shifted a little southward, primarily due to a more southward initial position as noted by recent microwave data. After 72 h, the dynamical models have come into a little better agreement and little change was required to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 16.0N 126.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 16.4N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 18.2N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 19.5N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 22.7N 134.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 25.9N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 27.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown


Category:Transportation and Logistics

Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 8

2017-08-20 10:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 200838 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 ...KENNETH EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 126.1W ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 126.1 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected today, and a turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur by late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Kenneth is forecast to become a hurricane today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown


Category:Transportation and Logistics

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