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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2026-08-16 01:20:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 152320TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Lala, located just offshore of South Point, Hawaii. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.South of Mexico:An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico around the middle portion of next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves west-northwestward well south of Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.Western Portion of the East Pacific:An area of low pressure is expected form well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter portions of next week while it moves generally westward across the western portion of the east Pacific.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.$$Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Graphics
2026-08-15 23:28:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2026 21:28:26 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2026-08-15 22:42:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152042 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KATZ/BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 12
2026-08-15 22:42:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 406 WTPZ43 KNHC 152042 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 Hernan continues to remain a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no active deep convection. A recent ASCAT pass showed that the winds are around 20 to 25 kts at most in the northern portion of the cyclone. As a result of that, the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. Given that the cyclone is moving into an area of higher shear and drier air, gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days. The current forecast calls for Hernan to become a trough in about 60 h in agreement with the global models. The initial motion is 255/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer Hernan and its remnants westward for the next few days. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.8N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/0600Z 15.9N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1800Z 16.1N 139.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 16.4N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 16.5N 143.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 12
2026-08-15 22:42:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152042 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 135.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 135.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 135.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.4N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.5N 143.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 135.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HERNAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KATZ/BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics