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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Graphics

2018-09-12 10:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 08:38:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 08:38:42 GMT

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Forecast Discussion Number 16

2018-09-12 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 12 2018 641 WTPZ43 KNHC 120837 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 12 2018 For the first time since 14 August, the northeast Pacific has no tropical cyclones. Paul has lacked organized deep convection for over 12 hours and has therefore been declared a remnant low. The initial intensity is still 30 kt, based on ASCAT data from around 0500 UTC which showed a few wind vectors between 25 and 30 kt, but weakening should resume soon due to the lack of deep convection. The remnant low is moving west at around 8 kt, and a west to west-southwest motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next few days until dissipation occurs later this week. This is the last NHC advisory on Paul. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 22.3N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 12/1800Z 22.4N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0600Z 22.4N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 22.4N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 22.3N 131.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z 21.8N 132.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2018-09-12 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 446 FOPZ13 KNHC 120836 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Forecast Advisory Number 16

2018-09-12 10:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 153 WTPZ23 KNHC 120836 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.4N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.4N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.4N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.3N 131.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.8N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 127.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Public Advisory Number 16

2018-09-12 10:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 12 2018 154 WTPZ33 KNHC 120836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 12 2018 ...PAUL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 127.4W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 127.4 West. Paul is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or two. A turn toward the west-southwest or southwest is possible by the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken over the next several days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

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