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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul (EP3/EP182018)

2018-09-12 10:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...PAUL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 12 the center of Paul was located near 22.3, -127.4 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-12 07:02:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

892 ABPZ20 KNHC 120502 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Paul, located a little more than 1000 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred miles west of the west-central coast of Mexico. Strong upper-level winds appear to be preventing the system from becoming better organized, and development, if any, is likely to be slow to occur while the system drifts southwestward over the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual development is possible after that time while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Paul Graphics

2018-09-12 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 02:33:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 03:46:20 GMT

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Discussion Number 15

2018-09-12 04:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 661 WTPZ43 KNHC 120232 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 Active deep convection associated with Paul appears to have ceased a little earlier today, shortly after 1900 UTC. At least one more advisory will be issued just in case Paul makes an unexpected comeback, but this seems unlikely due to the 24 deg C SSTs beneath the cyclone. With no convection to sustain it, Paul will likely gradually spin down over the next few days until dissipating entirely by the weekend. Paul is now moving west with an initial motion of 275/10 kt. Now that Paul's circulation has become very shallow, it should continue to be steered generally westward to west-southwestward by the low-level tradewind flow until dissipation occurs in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 22.4N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 22.6N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0000Z 22.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1200Z 22.8N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0000Z 22.7N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2018-09-12 04:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 036 FOPZ13 KNHC 120231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

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