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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier (EP5/EP252018)

2018-11-06 03:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...XAVIER DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 8:00 PM MST Mon Nov 5 the center of Xavier was located near 19.1, -107.5 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Forecast Advisory Number 14

2018-11-06 03:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 06 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060237 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0300 UTC TUE NOV 06 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 107.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-11-06 00:26:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 052325 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM PST Mon Nov 5 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Xavier, located about 125 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A weak area of low pressure located about 850 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are becoming less conducive, and significant development of this system is not expected while it drifts northwestward during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics

2018-11-05 21:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 20:37:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 21:21:48 GMT

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-11-05 21:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 All of Xavier's deep convection dissipated around 1500 UTC, leaving a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with embedded shower activity. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a pair of recent ASCAT passes over the circulation. Strong southwesterly shear and the surrounding dry environment finally appear to have cut off the production of deep convection, and although intermittent bursts of thunderstorms are still possible, it is unlikely that the circulation will be able to produce persistent organized convection. Therefore, Xavier's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up by 24 hours in the official forecast, although it is entirely possible that it could become a post-tropical low as early as tonight. Xavier's winds are also expected to continue to gradually diminish, likely falling below tropical-storm-force overnight or early Tuesday. The remnant low should then dissipate by day 4. The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest (300 degrees) at 4 kt. A low-level ridge extending from northern Mexico westward over the Pacific should drive the now-shallow circulation west-northwestward to westward at a slightly faster speed during the next few days. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward to account for recent motion trends, but it otherwise lies through the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 19.0N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 19.2N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 19.3N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 19.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z 19.0N 112.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Category:Transportation and Logistics

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