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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-11-16 21:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 253 WTPZ41 KNHC 162032 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 The depression has really come unglued over the past 6 hours. Deep convection has decreased dramatically and the little thunderstorm activity that remains is not well organized. Visible imagery reveals that the circulation of the low is elongated from east to west with no clear-cut center. An ASCAT-B overpass at 1604 UTC unfortunately did not sample the entire system, however, it too showed little indication of a well-defined center and max winds of only 25-30 kt. Those winds appeared to be related more to an ongoing Tehuantepec gap wind event than the depression itself. While these evidence would suggest that the system no longer meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone, it seems prudent to continue advisories for now, just in case the system makes a comeback later today. The depression continues to move westward, and a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico should keep it or its remnants on a westward or west-northwestward heading for the next few days. Aside from accounting for a slight westward adjustment of the initial position, the main change to the NHC forecast since the last advisory is that it no longer calls for the depression to become a tropical storm, and dissipation is now anticipated within 72 h. This is in line with the latest intensity guidance. Given the cyclone's current structure, it could become a remnant low or dissipate at any time during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 9.5N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 9.6N 102.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 10.0N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 10.3N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 10.5N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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