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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-08-20 10:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200838 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 The overall cloud pattern of Kenneth has changed little since the previous advisory. The center remains embedded with a fairly symmetric central dense overcast, but there has been no evidence of an eye in infrared satellite pictures overnight. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are between 3.5 and 4.0, which support maintaining an initial wind speed of 60 kt. Kenneth is forecast to remain within a low shear environment and over warm water for another 24 to 36 hours. This should result in strengthening and Kenneth is expected to become a hurricane later today. After that time, decreasing sea surface temperatures and less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause gradual weakening. Late in the period, increasing southwesterly shear should hasten Kenneth's demise and the system is expected to become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance and the IVCN multi-model consensus through 72 hours, but is a little below this guidance at days 4 and 5. Kenneth has been moving generally westward during the past 24 hours and recent satellite fixes suggest that Kenneth's forward motion has slowed to about 13 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous few advisories, with Kenneth expected to move around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. By Tuesday, a developing weakness in the ridge should cause Kenneth to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward late in the period. The early portion of the track forecast has been shifted a little southward, primarily due to a more southward initial position as noted by recent microwave data. After 72 h, the dynamical models have come into a little better agreement and little change was required to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 16.0N 126.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 16.4N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 18.2N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 19.5N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 22.7N 134.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 25.9N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 27.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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