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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 31
2019-09-20 04:53:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200253 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Kiko's structure hasn't change much since the previous advisory. The asymmetric pattern of the convection suggests that the cyclone is under the influence of some shear, which UW-CIMMS is analyzing to be about 20 kt from the southwest. The initial intensity is being maintained at 45 kt based on consensus Dvorak estimates of T3.0 from TAFB and SAB. A break in the mid-level steering ridge has allowed Kiko to turn northwestward, or 305/5 kt. For the next 5 days, the ridge is expected to restrengthen and then weaken again as a mid- to upper-level trough digs southward. As a result, Kiko is expected to take a sinuous track while moving generally westward, staying between 16N-18N. Even with that expectation, there is significant divergence in the models toward the end of the forecast period, with the GFS showing Kiko meandering and the ECMWF keeping the cyclone on a determined westward course. Because of this uncertainty, the updated NHC track has been slowed down a bit from the previous one. There has been a significant change in the intensity guidance, with most of the models showing Kiko's strength decreasing for much of the forecast period. Because there is so much uncertainty, the new NHC intensity forecast brings Kiko's winds to 50 kt in 12 hours, and then flatlines that intensity through day 4. Weakening is possible by the end of the forecast period due to a potential increase in shear. Even though the updated NHC forecast has been lowered from the previous one, it is still above the HCCA model and the multi-model consensus aids, and additional adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 16.6N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 18.2N 137.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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