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Tropical Storm NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-09-07 16:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071437 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016 Even after landfall, Newton has been producing a noteworthy burst of deep convection that will be moving into southeastern Arizona very soon. However, the low-level center is becoming partially exposed to the south and southwest of the convection due to almost 30 kt of shear. The maximum winds are reduced to 45 kt based on a steady decay rate, but without observations this estimate is quite uncertain. For what it's worth, the NWS WSR-88D from Tucson, Arizona, is showing 50-kt winds at an elevation of 10,000 ft, so an intensity between 40-45 kt seems reasonable. Newton has turned north-northeastward with an initial motion of 015/16 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 12-24 hours before Newton dissipates. After that time, Newton's remnants could turn eastward and move into southern New Mexico and western Texas. Based on the decay rate shown by the intensity models, Newton could still move into Arizona as a tropical storm this afternoon, but it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by this evening. Regardless of Newton's exact intensity, it is important to remember that wind speeds on the tops of hills and mountains could be higher than the surface wind speeds indicated in the forecast. The rugged terrain should cause the cyclone to dissipate overnight. The main concern with this system will be heavy rainfall that will continue spreading from northwestern Mexico into Arizona and New Mexico over the next day or so. These rains could cause flooding and mud slides. Consult statements from you local weather offices for possible flash flood warnings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 30.2N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/0000Z 32.4N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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