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Hurricane Irma Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-09-09 11:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 09:54:07 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-09 11:08:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 09:08:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 09:22:47 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 41
2017-09-09 11:06:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 090905 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 The eye of Irma has been moving over the islands along the north coast of Cuba, and satellite imagery along with preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the hurricane has weakened. The initial intensity is reduced to 135 kt, and this may be generous. The initial motion is now 285/10. Irma is moving along the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, which is about to weaken due to a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the southeastern United States. The track guidance is in good agreement that Irma should continue west-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest that would take the center parallel to the west coast of the Florida peninsula. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn northwestward and eventually stall as it interacts with the aforementioned trough. The track guidance has changed only slightly since the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast track follows the previous forecast in calling for Irma to move along the coast of Cuba, then over the Lower Florida Keys, and then over and near the Florida West coast. It should be noted that because of the hurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move onshore. There is an opportunity for Irma to re-intensity as it crosses the warm waters of the Florida Straits. However, the large-scale models forecast significant westerly shear developing at about 24 h, and it is unclear how much strengthening could occur before then. The first part of the intensity forecast thus calls for little change in strength through 36 h, and Irma is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida. After that time, movement over land and strong shear should cause steady weakening, with Irma eventually decaying to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through tonight. 2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center. 3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from local officials. 4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida peninsula through Tuesday night. Irma will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 22.5N 78.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 22.9N 80.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 23.8N 81.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 25.4N 81.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 27.7N 82.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/0600Z 32.5N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/0600Z 35.5N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 14/0600Z 36.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Irma Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-09-09 11:01:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 09:01:36 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2017-09-09 11:00:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 090900 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) X(37) X(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 7(35) X(35) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 1(35) X(35) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 42(49) X(49) X(49) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 49(75) X(75) X(75) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 61(79) X(79) X(79) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) X(37) X(37) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 44(76) 1(77) X(77) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) X(32) X(32) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 47(81) 1(82) X(82) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) X(42) X(42) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 55(60) 36(96) X(96) X(96) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 54(73) 1(74) X(74) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) X(43) X(43) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 58(68) 19(87) X(87) X(87) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 23(46) X(46) X(46) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 69(82) 15(97) X(97) X(97) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 46(46) 34(80) X(80) X(80) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 32(52) X(52) X(52) ORLANDO FL 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) 63(88) 7(95) X(95) X(95) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 52(53) 14(67) X(67) X(67) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 13(36) X(36) X(36) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 51(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 6(39) X(39) X(39) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) PATRICK AFB 34 X 5( 5) 23(28) 50(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 6(39) X(39) X(39) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 5( 8) 38(46) 34(80) 3(83) X(83) X(83) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 5 16(21) 47(68) 14(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) W PALM BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 16(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 11 34(45) 37(82) 5(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 4( 4) 24(28) 9(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MIAMI FL 34 21 40(61) 29(90) 3(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MIAMI FL 50 1 7( 8) 38(46) 4(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) MIAMI FL 64 X 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 37 40(77) 18(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 2 13(15) 43(58) 3(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MARATHON FL 34 67 30(97) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 50 4 70(74) 22(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MARATHON FL 64 X 37(37) 45(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) KEY WEST FL 34 54 41(95) 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 50 2 61(63) 32(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) KEY WEST FL 64 X 33(33) 48(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) NAPLES FL 34 5 38(43) 51(94) 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 X 3( 3) 67(70) 23(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 44(44) 33(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) FT MYERS FL 34 4 19(23) 64(87) 12(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 X 1( 1) 47(48) 43(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 20(20) 55(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) VENICE FL 34 2 7( 9) 55(64) 33(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 18(18) 64(82) 3(85) X(85) X(85) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 59(63) 5(68) X(68) X(68) TAMPA FL 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 62(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 69(72) 13(85) X(85) X(85) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 49(49) 17(66) X(66) X(66) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 62(70) 23(93) X(93) 1(94) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 44(75) X(75) X(75) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 40(54) 1(55) X(55) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 52(70) X(70) X(70) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) X(40) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 47(72) X(72) X(72) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 1(45) X(45) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 32(54) X(54) X(54) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 24(53) X(53) X(53) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 33(43) 1(44) X(44) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 4(47) 1(48) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 4(27) X(27) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) 1(20) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 4 8(12) 19(31) 9(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 12 6(18) 6(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ANDROS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 33 44(77) 4(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) HAVANA 50 2 11(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) HAVANA 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 5 9(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ISLE OF PINES 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CIENFUEGOS 50 22 22(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CIENFUEGOS 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMAGUEY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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