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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-08-31 22:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 20:39:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 21:22:46 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-08-31 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 312032 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. This is a remarkable 50-kt increase from yesterday at this time. Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend, Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional hurricane models at that time. Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. At long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south differences in the global models. I am inclined to stay on the southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the consensus, giving some confidence in that approach. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 17.3N 34.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 18.3N 40.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 17.9N 42.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 16.8N 47.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 16.5N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-08-31 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 31 the center of Irma was located near 17.3, -34.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 6
2017-08-31 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 312031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 ...IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 34.8W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 34.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue today, followed by a westward turn on Saturday, and a west-southwestward motion by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, both up and down, are possible, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane for several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-08-31 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 312031 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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