je.st
news
Tag: irma
Tropical Storm Irma Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-08-31 10:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 310844 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 Irma continues to become better organized with a developing CDO and a few banding features. The overall cloud pattern is fairly symmetric, with fair upper-level outflow over all but the southeastern portion of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 60 kt, which is the mean of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environment ahead of Irma appears to be mostly conducive for intensification, with increasingly warm SSTs. Vertical shear is expected to remain low as an upper-level trough to the west-northwest of the tropical cyclone lifts out to the north and west. The only noticeable inhibiting factor is slightly drier mid-level air in 2-5 days, but this will probably not be much of a deterrent for strengthening. The official intensity forecast follows the latest consensus of the models, and is similar to the previous NHC prediction. Based on geostationary satellite fixes, the initial motion is just slightly north of west or 280/10 kt. Most of the track guidance shows a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so. Irma will remain situated to the south of a well-defined mid-tropospheric ridge through the forecast period. Much of the guidance indicates that Irma will turn toward a slightly south of westward heading in a couple of days, presumably in response to some building of high pressure to the north and northwest. The official track forecast also shows this, and remains on the southern side of the guidance suite. This is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 16.5N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 17.0N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 17.6N 36.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 18.0N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 18.2N 40.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 17.5N 45.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 16.7N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 16.0N 53.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-08-31 10:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 310844 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Irma Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-08-31 10:44:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 310844 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 32.9W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 32.9W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 32.4W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 34.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 36.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 37.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.2N 40.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 16.7N 49.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 32.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Irma Graphics
2017-08-31 04:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 02:38:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Aug 2017 03:34:57 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
irma
Tropical Storm Irma Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-08-31 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 310232 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 Irma continues to become better organized, with the development of a small CDO feature and increased banding near the center. An earlier high-resolution Windsat microwave overpass showed that Irma has a tight inner core and a low-level eye-like feature was present. A Dvorak classification of T3.5 from TAFB is the basis for the initial intensity of 55 kt. Irma is expected to steadily strengthen during the next couple of days while it moves through a low-shear and moist environment, and remains over warm sea surface temperatures. After that time, slightly cooler SSTs and lower mid-level moisture may temper the intensification process. However, the statistical aids, HWRF, and most of the consensus models make Irma a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory through 48 hours, but is above the earlier forecast thereafter. The new official intensity forecast could still be a little conservative as it remains a little below the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the ICON consensus at days 4 and 5. Irma is moving westward at about 10 kt to the south of deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The track forecast reasoning is about the same as the previous advisory, with Irma expected to turn west-northwestward on Thursday, then continue on that heading for a couple of days. The high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast to strengthen later this week, which is expected to result in Irma turning west-southwestward by the weekend. There is still some spread among the track models, so the NHC forecast lies near a blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF, and the HFIP corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 16.4N 32.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 16.8N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 17.3N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 17.7N 37.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 18.0N 39.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.6N 44.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 16.8N 49.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 16.2N 53.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] [98] [99] next »