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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-09 04:45:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090245 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Javier at 700 mb this evening, as part of a research mission, measured peak SFMR-observed surface winds of 46 kt. A dropsonde measured a central pressure of 1003 mb, but with a 45-kt surface wind, which equates to a pressure of about 999 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been lowered slightly to 50 kt. The reconnaissance wind data also indicate that Javier remains a compact tropical cyclone, and that the flight-level center is tilted southwest of the surface center. Smoothing through the various wobbles in the fixes yields an initial motion estimate of 315/04 kt. Javier is forecast to continue moving northwestward around the western periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge located over the south-central United States and northern Mexico. The weak steering flow could result in some erratic motion as Javier moves closer to southern Baja California and interacts with the mountainous terrain. The new NHC track is essentially just and update of the previous advisory track, which takes Javier up the west side of the Baja California peninsula, and lies close to the multi-model consensus, TVCN. Aircraft flight-level data also revealed that dry mid-level air had penetrated into the inner-core region, and this was probably the main reason for the erosion of the deep convection in the northeastern semicircle since the previous advisory. Although some modest convection has recently developed in the southeastern quadrant, it is less likely now that Javier will be able to sustain any significant intensification due to the aforementioned dry mid-level air and the small cyclone interacting with land through most of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast closely follows the consensus intensity model, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 22.5N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 23.2N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 24.2N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 25.1N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 26.0N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 27.3N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-08-09 04:45:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090245 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 0300 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 24 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAN JOSE CABO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 14 33(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) LA PAZ 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm JAVIER (EP1/EP112016)
2016-08-09 04:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JAVIER WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 8 the center of JAVIER was located near 22.5, -109.7 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Public Advisory Number 8
2016-08-09 04:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090245 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 ...JAVIER WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...HURRICANE WATCH DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 109.7W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Loreto * Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 109.7 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier will pass near or over the southern tip of the Baja California tonight, and move near the west coast of Baja California Sur on Tuesday. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible while the center passes near the southern Baja California peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. Reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and coastal parts of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and southern Sonora through Wednesday morning, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Advisory Number 8
2016-08-09 04:44:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 090244 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 0300 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO * CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 109.7W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 109.7W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.2N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.2N 111.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.1N 112.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 113.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.3N 113.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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