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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 45
2016-10-15 10:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150834 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory. Patches of deep convection keep reforming near and to the north of the center. The circulation appears to be elongated, but it is still well defined. Initial intensity is kept at 60 kt. As mentioned by my predecessor, the future structure of Nicole is difficult to forecast. Given the strong shear and cold SSTs, one should tend to foreast weakening or extratropical transition. However, both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery continue to forecast the development of an eye feature in a day or so. Given these model solutions, the NHC forecast keeps Nicole with tropical characteristics during the next 3 days and calls for the cyclone to become post-tropical thereafter. After an increased in forward speed last evening, Nicole has slowed down a little, and is now moving toward the east-northeast at about 15 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within a mid-latitude trough and will continue to move with the trough on the same general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, another trough will approach Nicole and will probably kick the cyclone toward the north-northeast. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is not different from the previous one. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii. Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 38.1N 51.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 38.7N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 38.8N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 39.0N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 39.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 44.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 54.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0600Z 62.5N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45
2016-10-15 10:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 150833 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-15 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RESILIENT NICOLE FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 15 the center of NICOLE was located near 38.1, -51.6 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 45
2016-10-15 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 ...RESILIENT NICOLE FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 51.6W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 51.6 West. Nicole is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), but a turn to the east with a decrease in forward speed is forecast later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is possible, and Nicole is expected to produce hurricane-force winds again later today. The cyclone is forecast to maintain tropical characteristics for the next several days, but there is still a possibility that Nicole could become post-tropical over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will continue to affect Bermuda and the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward for the next couple of days. Swells from Nicole are beginning to affect the coastline of Atlantic Canada and will continue into the weekend. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 45
2016-10-15 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150832 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 51.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT.......210NE 210SE 255SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 450SE 540SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 51.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 52.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 270SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 38.8N 48.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 270SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 39.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. 34 KT...330NE 300SE 300SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 330SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 44.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 54.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 62.5N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 51.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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