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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-17 10:48:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Oct 2016 08:48:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Oct 2016 08:33:34 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 53
2016-10-17 10:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170837 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 Nicole continues to exhibit a tropical appearance on satellite imagery, with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a large ragged eye. The current intensity is reduced to 65 kt based on recent scatterometer data, and this is also consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Although not much weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, the cyclone is now expected to lose tropical characteristics in 24 hours since, by that time, it should be over SSTs colder than 20 deg C. Soon thereafter, the system is forecast to become attached to a nearby frontal zone and make the transition into a vigorous extratropical cyclone. By 96 hours, global models show the low being absorbed by another large extratropical cyclone near Greenland. Nicole continues to move northeastward at around 8 kt. The system has yet to get caught up in the stronger mid-latitude westerlies that lie just to the north. However, a shortwave trough moving through Atlantic Canada should cause Nicole to accelerate northeastward soon. As the trough amplifies, the cyclone is likely to continue to accelerate and turn north-northeastward to northward later in the forecast period. The 12-ft seas radii and predicted wind radii, as well as the position and intensity forecasts are mainly based on analyses and forecasts from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 41.0N 45.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 42.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 18/1800Z 51.5N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0600Z 56.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0600Z 65.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 53
2016-10-17 10:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 170834 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC MON OCT 17 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-17 10:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE GENERATING HIGH SURF OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Oct 17 the center of NICOLE was located near 41.0, -45.2 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 53
2016-10-17 10:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 ...NICOLE GENERATING HIGH SURF OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.0N 45.2W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 45.2 West. Nicole is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through late today. A north-northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is forecast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nicole is expected to produce hurricane-force winds through Tuesday. However, Nicole should lose its tropical characteristics by Tuesday as well. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda, the United States east coast, the coast of Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands for the next several days, creating dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. These swells are also likely to reach Europe and the northwest coast of Africa in a couple of days. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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