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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-07-18 10:49:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180849 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 300 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 Estelle has changed little overall since the previous advisory due to the combined effects of moderate northwesterly wind shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air. The result has been the inability of the cyclone to develop a persistent eye feature in microwave satellite imagery. The initial intensity has been maintained at 60 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB, which is supported by a 0432Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass that contained a couple of wind speeds of 50-55 kt. The initial motion estimates remains a steady 290/08kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Estelle is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 72-96 hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest by day 5 when the cyclone moves into a developing break in the subtropical ridge. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this track scenario. The new forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and then is shifted slightly northward in line with the trend in the guidance. Estelle still has about another 36 hours or so to strengthen, during which time the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt and SSTs remain above 26 deg C. Thereafter, steady weakening is expected due to SSTs decreasing below 25 deg C around 48 h and to 23 deg C by 96 h. The new intensity forecast to the similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.2N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 18.3N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 18.8N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 19.2N 121.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 22.0N 130.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.5N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-18 10:47:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2016 08:47:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2016 08:46:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-18 10:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 the center of ESTELLE was located near 17.2, -114.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 12
2016-07-18 10:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 180845 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 300 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 114.0W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 114.0 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Estelle is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2016-07-18 10:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 180845 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 88 1(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLA CLARION 50 74 2(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA CLARION 64 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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