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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 21
2016-07-20 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201436 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 Estelle has generally changed little since the previous advisory. The convective pattern still consists of a well organized curved band that covers much of the eastern half of the circulation and fragmented bands to the west of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory, which is an average of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Estelle is crossing the 26 deg C isotherm and will be moving over progressively cooler water during the next few days. In addition, the storm will also be moving into an atmosphere of drier air and increasing westerly shear. Given these expected environmental conditions, steady weakening is forecast during the period, and Estelle will likely become a post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days when it is over SSTs around 22 deg C. The storm is moving westward at about 11 kt on the southwest side of a large subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States. Estelle is forecast to reach the western periphery of the ridge in a couple of days, which should induce a turn to the northwest. A northwestward motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates in 4 to 5 days. The models are in good agreement on this overall scenario, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. This track prediction is in best agreement with a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.5N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.0N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 133.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/1200Z 25.6N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 29.4N 141.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 21
2016-07-20 16:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 201435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 123.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 123.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 125.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 128.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 130.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 133.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.6N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.4N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-20 16:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE HOLDING STEADY JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 the center of ESTELLE was located near 19.2, -123.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2016-07-20 16:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 201435 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-07-20 10:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200839 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 Other than a brief warm spot appearing within the small CDO feature around 0400Z, the overall convective structure of Estelle has changed little since the previous advisory. Recent microwave satellite data, especially a 0531Z AMSU pass, continue to indicate that the cyclone has been unable to completely close off a mid-level eye feature. The initial intensity remains 60 kt based on an average of subjective and objective intensity estimates, and the lack of a persistent, well-developed eye feature in microwave data. Estelle has made a jog to the west, and the motion estimate is now 270/10 kt. Estelle is expected to continue on a westward track for the next 12 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by this afternoon, a motion that is forecast to continue through 48 h. By 72 h and beyond, Estelle is expected to turn northwestward and move into a trough-induced break in the subtropical ridge around 130-135W longitude. The new NHC guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track lies close to the previous advisory track and the consensus model TVCN. It isn't out of the question that Estelle could still briefly reach hurricane strength this morning. However, any strengthening that might occur will be short-lived now that the cyclone is moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures. Although the vertical wind shear is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models to remain quite low, sharply decreasing SSTs and much drier mid-level air should cause Estelle to steadily weaken after 12 h. The cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical low in 48 h when Estelle will be moving over 22C SSTs, and dissipation is expected by 120 h. The new intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 19.0N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 19.4N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.9N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 20.6N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 21.6N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/0600Z 24.5N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z 28.1N 140.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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