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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-13 22:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 20:49:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 21:28:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 26
2018-09-13 22:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 615 WTNT43 KNHC 132048 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Helene has maintained deep convection this afternoon though only in the northern semicircle. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are continuing to drop, and a blend of these with the CIMSS SATCON supports lowering the intensity to 55 kt. Strong tropospheric vertical shear along with only lukewarm waters are likely contributing toward Helene's weakening. The shear should further increase during the next two days, though the sea surface temperatures will rebound up to 27C along with an increase in low-level moisture. Helene is expected to be either slowly weakening or steady state during this time. Beginning in about three days, Helene will commence baroclinic transition, and it is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by 96 hours. The baroclinic forcing should preclude any additional weakening through the remainder of the forecast period, and the official intensity forecast is nearly the same as the last advisory. This prediction is based on a blend of the stronger HWRF/COAMPS dynamical models and the weaker SHIPS/LGEM statistical schemes for the next couple of days, and is based on a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET global models at the extended lead times. Helene is moving northward at about 12 kt between the subtropical ridge to its east and a deep-layer trough to its west. The system should accelerate and turn toward the northeast over the next few days as it rounds the subtropical ridge and starts getting picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered variable consensus technique (TVCN) and is nearly the same as the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 26.3N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 28.8N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 32.3N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 35.5N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 37.9N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 40.6N 24.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 44.0N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/1800Z 51.0N 7.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-13 22:47:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE AZORES ISLANDS FOR HELENE... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Helene was located near 26.3, -37.0 with movement N at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 26
2018-09-13 22:47:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 090 WTNT33 KNHC 132047 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE AZORES ISLANDS FOR HELENE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 37.0W ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for all of the Azores Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * All of the Azores Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 37.0 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). The system is expected to accelerate and turn toward the northeast by Monday. On this forecast track, Helene will be crossing over or near the Azores late Saturday or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2018-09-13 22:47:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 104 FONT13 KNHC 132047 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 14(49) X(49) X(49) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) X(38) X(38) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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