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Hurricane Helene Graphics
2018-09-12 10:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 08:37:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 08:37:21 GMT
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-09-12 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 538 WTNT43 KNHC 120835 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 Earlier this morning, Helene looked quite ragged in IR imagery. The eye became poorly defined and cloud tops were steadily warming. However, beginning around 0500 UTC, a new burst of convection began wrapping around the previously open western portion of Helene's inner core. Objective and subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 77 to 91 kt, and the initial intensity is therefore set at 80 kt as a blend of all of these data. Despite the fact that Helene appears to be on the upswing at the moment, the cyclone is still passing over sub-26 deg C waters and all of the intensity guidance shows weakening for the next 24 h. Beyond that time, there is still some spread among the intensity models, though it has decreased since the last advisory. Helene will begin interacting with a mid-latitude trough over the north-central Atlantic, which will result in an increase in shear over the hurricane. However, Helene will also begin to move over warmer waters and could get some baroclinic support from the upper-level trough. Overall the intensity guidance is a little lower than before, and now the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. Once again, no meaningful change has been made to the NHC track forecast which continues to closely follow the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Helene is moving north-northwestward, and should gradually turn northward, and eventually northeastward, as the cyclone is steered between a mid-level ridge to the east and the aforementioned mid-latitude trough to northwest. The global models remain in fairly good agreement on the track of Helene, especially through 72-96 h, when Helene is forecast to pass near the Azores, and interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of Helene over the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 19.2N 35.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.7N 36.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 22.9N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 25.5N 37.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 28.9N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 36.0N 34.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 41.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 45.5N 19.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-12 10:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 12 the center of Helene was located near 19.2, -35.7 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 20
2018-09-12 10:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 358 WTNT33 KNHC 120834 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 ...HELENE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 35.7W ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 35.7 West. Helene is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the north is expected later today. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is likely by the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-09-12 10:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 327 FONT13 KNHC 120834 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0900 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) 1(51) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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