je.st
news
Tag: helene
Hurricane Helene Graphics
2018-09-11 04:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 02:46:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 02:46:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
hurricane graphics
graphics hurricane
Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-09-11 04:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 809 WTNT43 KNHC 110242 TCDAT3 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Helene remains a well organized hurricane with a fairly large 25 n mi diameter eye and ring of cold cloud tops surrounding that feature. There are a few dry slots beyond the inner core, however, which have prevented some of the Dvorak estimates from increasing this cycle. A blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates supports raising the initial intensity slightly to 95 kt. The hurricane has a limited amount of time to strengthen as the current environment of low wind shear and relatively warm SSTs will be changing soon. Helene is expected to cross the 26 deg C isotherm within 24 hours and it will enter an environment of increasing south-southwesterly shear just beyond that time period. These conditions should promote a steady weakening trend beginning late Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, however, SSTs increase along the forecast track, and there could be some baroclinic enhancements to end the weakening trend and perhaps even cause some strengthening. This scenario is supported by the HWRF/HMON regional models and the GFS/ECMWF global models. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, except it is slightly higher at the end of the period. The hurricane is gradually turning to the right, with the latest initial motion estimate being 295/13 kt. A large mid- to upper-level trough over the north Atlantic is expected to dig southward causing a significant weakness in the subtropical ridge. In response to this change in the steering pattern, Helene is forecast to gradually turn northward and then north-northeastward during the next several days. The track models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is only a little to the right of the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.5N 32.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 16.2N 34.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 17.2N 35.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 18.6N 37.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 20.1N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 24.6N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 30.0N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 36.2N 34.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-11 04:42:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10 the center of Helene was located near 15.5, -32.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
helene
Hurricane Helene Public Advisory Number 15
2018-09-11 04:42:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 671 WTNT33 KNHC 110242 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...HELENE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 32.4W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1590 MI...2555 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 32.4 West. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through late Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 12 hours, but a gradual weakening trend is expected after that time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-09-11 04:42:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 656 FONT13 KNHC 110242 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Sites : [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] next »