je.st
news
Tag: katia
Hurricane Katia Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-09-06 22:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062054 TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 An Air Force reconnaissance plane just investigated Katia and found a much better organized tropical cyclone with a partial eyewall. It also measured a flight-level wind of 71 kt and 66 kt with the SFMR. Based on these data and the improved satellite presentation, Katia is upgraded to a hurricane with 65 kt winds. The upper-level wind pattern is becoming more favorable, and that can be observed by the expansion of the outflow. All models continue to favor intensification, and in fact, the SHIPS RI index gives a 63 percent chance of a 30-kt wind increase in 24 hours. The NHC forecast calls for strengthening but at this time is not as high as some of the guidance. Katia is embedded within very weak steering currents, and it is now moving slowly toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The hurricane is forecast to meander in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or two. After that time the global models develop a ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this flow pattern will steer Katia southwestward toward the state of Veracruz. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and follows the trend of the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. Given the upward intensity trend and the forecast track toward the coast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch for a portion of the coast of the state of Veracruz. Katia is also forecast to bring torrential rains primarily to the state of Veracruz during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 21.7N 95.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 21.5N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 21.3N 94.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 21.1N 95.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 20.9N 95.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 19.5N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Katia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-09-06 22:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 062053 PWSAT3 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) LA PESCA MX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) TAMPICO MX 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 18(26) 14(40) X(40) X(40) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TUXPAN MX 34 1 3( 4) 12(16) 35(51) 23(74) X(74) X(74) TUXPAN MX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 19(35) X(35) X(35) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) VERACRUZ MX 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 18(32) 13(45) X(45) X(45) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane Katia (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-06 22:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE KATIA FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 the center of Katia was located near 21.7, -95.1 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Katia Public Advisory Number 5
2017-09-06 22:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 062053 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Katia Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017 ...HURRICANE KATIA FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 95.1W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of the state of Veracruz from Tuxpan to Laguna Verde. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Tuxpan to Laguna Verde A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 95.1 West. Katia is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). Little overall motion is anticipated through tonight, but a southwestward drift should begin tomorrow. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Katia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over northern Veracruz, and 2 to 5 inches over far southern Tamaulipas, northeast Puebla, and southern Veracruz through Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in northern Veracruz. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier that day. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane Katia Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-09-06 22:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 062053 TCMAT3 HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ FROM TUXPAN TO LAGUNA VERDE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO LAGUNA VERDE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.1W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.1W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 95.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N 94.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.3N 94.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 55SE 70SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.1N 95.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.9N 95.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.5N 98.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 95.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] next »