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Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-07-24 16:31:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241431 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 38-KT ASCAT SURFACE WIND AT 1111Z... AND VARIOUS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ABOUT 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18 KT. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LOW WHILE DORIAN REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER... DURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...DORIAN WILL BE MOVING OVER 25C SSTS...WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS OFFSETTING THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR BEING INGESTED FROM THE NORTH...AND THAT COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF DORIAN PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS. FOR THAT REASON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 36- AND 48-HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER BOTH WARMER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD STEADY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...BUT THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND OF CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.3N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.0N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.8N 36.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.4N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.1N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 19.3N 58.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 20.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-07-24 16:30:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 241430 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1500 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 4 9 10 10 12 TROP DEPRESSION 2 8 18 28 27 27 30 TROPICAL STORM 92 78 69 56 56 57 52 HURRICANE 7 13 9 7 8 7 6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 11 8 6 7 6 6 HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 2
2013-07-24 16:25:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 241425 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1500 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 29.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.0N 32.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.8N 36.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 39.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 43.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 19.3N 58.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 64.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 29.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Plymouth Herald published Dealership staff profile: Dorian Jones, Car Sales Executive,...
2013-03-26 09:06:18| Auto Dealers - Topix.net
WHEN it comes to delivering outstanding customer service Rodgers of Plymouth stand out as a shining example of what can be achieved if you employ the right people long-serving staff like car sales executive, Dorian Jones, who has worked for the Plymouth-based dealership for the past 18 years.
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