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Tropical Storm DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 35
2016-07-20 10:38:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 200837 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 Darby has changed little in structure during the past few hours. Deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -60C continue near the center, and recent microwave images showed a nearly closed mid-level ring. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain 3.5 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is therefore held at 55 kt. Darby is over SSTs around 25C and is heading toward warmer waters. However, vertical shear is expected to increase in the next 24-36 hours. Interestingly, the intensity models aren't in agreement on what will happen with Darby's intensity during this period. While the SHIPS and LGEM models indicate steady weakening over the next few days, the HWRF and Florida State Superensemble actually show some re-intensification in 24-36 hours. Due to these competing signals, the NHC official forecast shows little change in intensity during the next 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening on days 3-5. This updated forecast is not too different from the previous one, except that it delays steady weakening until after 48 hours. Darby is moving westward with an initial motion of 270/11 kt. The cyclone is located to the south of the subtropical ridge, which should maintain a westward motion for the next three days. After that time, a retrograding mid- to upper-level low north of the Hawaiian Islands will create a break in the ridge, causing Darby to turn northwestward and north-northwestward on days 4 and 5. With the exception of the GFDL, there is very little cross-track spread among the model guidance. However, there are some noticeable speed differences, with the ECMWF and UKMET showing more acceleration after the turn compared to the GFS and HWRF models. For now, the NHC official forecast, which is very similar to the previous forecast, splits the difference and is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 20.0N 138.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 19.8N 140.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.5N 142.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 19.2N 145.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 18.9N 147.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 19.0N 151.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 20.0N 152.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 23.0N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm DARBY (EP5/EP052016)
2016-07-20 10:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DARBY MOVING WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 the center of DARBY was located near 20.0, -138.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm DARBY Public Advisory Number 35
2016-07-20 10:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 200836 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 ...DARBY MOVING WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 138.9W ABOUT 1050 MI...1695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 138.9 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 34
2016-07-20 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 200231 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Darby continues to maintain deep convection near its center, and in fact the convective cloud tops have cooled a bit over the past several hours. The current intensity estimate, 55 kt, is unchanged from the past advisory and is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The storm should encounter modestly increasing vertical shear and drier air over the next several days, but will be moving over slightly warmer waters. These factors should result in only a slow rate of weakening over the forecast period, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast, which is near the model consensus and above the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. It is worth noting however, that longer-range intensity prediction has little skill. Based on geostationary and microwave fixes, the westward motion, 280/11 kt, continues. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. A mid-level subtropical ridge extending westward from the southern Great Plains should continue to steer Darby on a westward or slightly south-of-westward heading for the next few days. In the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level cyclone to the north of the Hawaiian Islands should cause Darby to turn toward the northwest. The official forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus. However, the GFS and ECMWF ensemble tracks show considerable spread on days 3-5, indicating a significant amount of uncertainty in the forecast track late in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 20.0N 137.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 20.0N 139.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.8N 141.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 19.5N 144.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 19.2N 146.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 19.1N 150.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 20.2N 152.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 22.0N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm DARBY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2016-07-20 04:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 200231 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X 3( 3) 38(41) 19(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 5(36) 1(37) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 11(34) 2(36) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 5(20) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH