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Tropical Storm Rina Graphics
2017-11-08 03:41:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Nov 2017 02:41:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Nov 2017 02:41:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-11-08 03:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080236 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 Rina's satellite presentation has acquired some sub-tropical characteristics this evening as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough to its west and southwest. The center remains exposed to the south of the primary mass of convection, but the convection has loosely wrapped around the northwestern portion of the circulation which has lead to an increase in overall banding. Recent ASCAT data shows that there has been an overall increase in the size of the wind field and that the maximum winds have increased to around 45 kt. Rina is forecast to remain within an environment of moderate shear and marginal instability during the next 24 hours, however some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Wednesday due to interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough. By early Thursday, Rina will be moving over much colder waters and is forecast to become post-tropical. The cyclone should become a fully extratropical low by late Thursday. Rina continues to move northward or 010/16 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The cyclone should turn north-northeastward around a large high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic by late Wednesday, and then begin to accelerate northeastward on Thursday when it becomes embedded within strong mid-latitude flow. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement and the NHC forecast is again near the various consensus aids to account for some differences in forward speed among the global models. The cyclone is expected to dissipate along a frontal zone over the far north Atlantic in about 72 hours or less. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 35.4N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 41.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 45.7N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 10/0000Z 51.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-11-08 03:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 080236 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 0300 UTC WED NOV 08 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Rina (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-08 03:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Nov 7 the center of Rina was located near 35.4, -48.5 with movement N at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 8
2017-11-08 03:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 ...RINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.4N 48.5W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 48.5 West. Rina is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected late tomorrow, followed by a rapid northeast motion on Thursday. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast tonight and Wednesday before weakening likely begins on Thursday. Rina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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