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Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics
2018-08-08 16:40:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Aug 2018 14:40:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Aug 2018 15:49:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-08-08 16:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 359 WTPZ43 KNHC 081433 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 Kristy has continues to have the structure of a strongly sheared tropical cyclone. The low-level center has been difficult to identify overnight, but recent microwave data indicates that it is displaced to the northwest of the primary convective mass. The initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although the low-level center has been somewhat difficult to track, it appears that Kristy has begun to turn west-northwestward, and the initial motion estimate is 290/7 kt. Little change has been made to the official track forecast, but confidence remains very low. A break in the subtropical ridge created by Hurricane John should allow Kristy to continue turning, resulting in a northward motion by Thursday. Beyond that time, the model spread remains high, fueled by a combination of uncertainty as to how much John and Kristy will directly interact, and how much Kristy will respond to an upper-level trough to the northwest. The GFS is a notable outlier on the east side of the guidance envelope, and is the only model showing Kristy wrapping around the circulation of John. For now, the NHC forecast continues to downplay this possibility, and is a little to the west of the multi-model consensus. The intensity guidance spread is also high, ranging from the HWRF which makes Kristy a hurricane, to the SHIPS and LGEM which forecast only gradual weakening. Since the shear is forecast to decrease over the next 12 to 24 hours, and Kristy will be moving away from the cold wake of Hector and over warmer waters, at least some strengthening seems likely. By the second half of the forecast period, the cyclone will be passing over much colder SSTs and through a drier environment, which should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken and become a remnant low. The NHC forecast is now close to the model consensus IVCN, which is higher this cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 14.4N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 15.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 15.9N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 16.8N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 19.8N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-08-08 16:33:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 997 FOPZ13 KNHC 081433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 30 32(62) 1(63) 1(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) 15N 130W 50 5 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 130W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 25(35) 5(40) X(40) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-08 16:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KRISTY TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 8 the center of Kristy was located near 14.4, -129.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 7
2018-08-08 16:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 959 WTPZ33 KNHC 081433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018 ...KRISTY TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 129.3W ABOUT 1395 MI...2245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 129.3 West. Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north at a slower forward speed is expected through the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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