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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-03 16:48:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 031448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Satellite images show that Juliette continues to rapidly intensify, with a distinct eye becoming apparent in addition to a more symmetric cloud pattern. The center of the eye moved just southwest of Clarion Island a few hours ago, bringing 89-kt sustained winds and a wind gust to 113 kt according to data from the Mexican Navy. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite estimates gives an initial wind speed of 110 kt for this advisory. Some further strengthening is possible today before Juliette moves over marginal waters, with continued weakening likely afterward through the end of the forecast period due to cooling sea-surface temperatures. Intensity guidance has come into good agreement since the past advisory, and no significant changes were required to the last NHC forecast. The initial motion estimate is 305/7 kt. A large ridge over the southwestern United States should provide a steady steering current during the next several days, gradually bending the hurricane westward with time. Model guidance is tightly clustered, with only minor long-range differences in how sharply the cyclone turns westward. The new NHC track prediction is very close to the previous one through 72 h. There's been a subtle westward model shift at days 4 and 5, so the NHC forecast follows that trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 18.4N 115.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Juliette Graphics
2019-09-03 16:47:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 14:47:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 15:39:15 GMT
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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-09-03 16:46:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 031446 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 68 2(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 115W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 1 7( 8) 60(68) 27(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 50(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 3(30) X(30) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-03 16:46:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE BRINGS A 130-MPH WIND GUST TO CLARION ISLAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Juliette was located near 18.4, -115.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 10
2019-09-03 16:46:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...JULIETTE BRINGS A 130-MPH WIND GUST TO CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 115.0W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 115.0 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today, with weakening forecast to begin by late Wednesday and continuing through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A Mexican Navy station on Clarion Island recently reported sustained winds of 99 mph (159 km/h) with a peak gust of 130 mph (209 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.14 inches) based on satellite estimates and data from the Mexican Navy station on Clarion Island. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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