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Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-04 04:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane investigated Fernand this evening and found that the circulation of the cyclone was better organized with a central pressure of 1000 mb. The plane also measured a peak flight level wind of 51 kt, and numerous SFMR observations of around 45 kt. This is the intensity assigned to Fernand in this advisory. These strong winds were confined to the western semicircle of the storm and very close to the coast of Mexico. The satellite presentation has also improved during the past few hours, but due to shear, the center is still located on the southeastern edge of an area of very deep convection. Fernand does not have to much room for strengthening since its circulation will soon be interacting with the high terrain of eastern Mexico. However, in the next 12 to 18 hours before the center moves inland, some intensification could occur as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Once Fernand moves inland, it will weaken rapidly. The cyclone is moving slowly westward or 270 degrees at 3 kt. Fernand is trapped south of a strong mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States, and this pattern should slowly steer the cyclone on a west-to west-northwest track for the next day or so. This track is consistent with the previous one, and it is consistent with the solution of the global models. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 23.2N 96.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 23.5N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 24.0N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 24.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Fernand Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-04 04:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 040233 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCA MX 34 67 10(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) LA PESCA MX 50 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PESCA MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Fernand (AT2/AL072019)
2019-09-04 04:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Fernand was located near 23.2, -96.4 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-09-04 04:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040232 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO ALTAMIRA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 96.4W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 96.4W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 96.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.5N 97.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.5N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 96.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Fernand Public Advisory Number 4
2019-09-04 04:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 040232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 96.4W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the eastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 96.4 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a track toward the west-northwest is anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Fernand is expected to cross the northeastern coast of Mexico on Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight increase in intensity is possible before landfall. Once inland, weakening is expected and Fernand should dissipate in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center mainly to the west of the center. Data from the reconnaissance plane indicate that the tropical storm force winds are already near the coast of Mexico. The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane was 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already very near the coast within the warning area and will continue to increase on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the lower Texas coast. RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: Central Tamaulipas and southern Nuevo Leon 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches in the Sierra Madre Oriental. Northern Tamaulipas and northern Nuevo Leon: 3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas through Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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