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Tropical Storm Harvey Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-08-28 17:19:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 15:19:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-28 16:55:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 14:55:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 15:26:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 33
2017-08-28 16:50:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281449 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Radar and surface data indicate that the center of Harvey is near or just off the Texas coast south of Matagorda. The system currently has only disorganized convection near the center, with the primary deep convection in a band well to the east of the center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a minimum central pressure around 997 mb and the assumption that stronger winds aloft seen on the Houston WSR-88D are mixing down to the surface in the stronger bands. While the convection is currently poorly organized, very heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding continue over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. There have been reports of 2-day rainfall totals of close to 30 inches in the Greater Houston area. With the additional rains that are expected over the next several days, rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for the area. Due to the current structure, a dry slot seen in water vapor imagery over the southern part of the circulation, and the lack of intensification shown by the intensity guidance, only slight strengthening is anticipated while Harvey remains over the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous one. Radar and surface observations indicate that the center is moving slowly southeastward, or 125/4 kt. A mid-level trough dropping into the Ohio Valley should cause Harvey to turn toward the east and northeast and move back over land in a couple of days. There is little change to the forecast track from the previous advisory, and the new track remains close to the dynamical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana. Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in southwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches expected in south-central Louisiana and 5 to 10 inches in southeastern Louisiana. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. 3. While Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been extended eastward to the coast of Louisiana, the impacts of winds and storm surge are expected to be secondary compared to that of the rains. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 28.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 28.1N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 28.1N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 28.5N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 29.4N 94.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 31.5N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 33.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 35.5N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2017-08-28 16:49:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 281449 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 1(15) 1(16) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 3(25) 1(26) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 12(23) 1(24) X(24) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 11(22) 1(23) X(23) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 11(15) 17(32) 7(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 18(27) 2(29) X(29) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) 12(37) 1(38) X(38) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) 16(36) 8(44) 1(45) X(45) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 14(26) X(26) 1(27) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 3 1( 4) 6(10) 13(23) 9(32) 1(33) X(33) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 20 2(22) 10(32) 11(43) 7(50) X(50) X(50) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 2 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 950W 50 4 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 950W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 1 X( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 60 6(66) 3(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MATAGORDA TX 50 2 X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 17 4(21) 3(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 18 4(22) 4(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-28 16:49:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 the center of Harvey was located near 28.5, -96.0 with movement SE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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