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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Graphics
2013-06-07 23:07:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Jun 2013 20:51:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Jun 2013 21:03:43 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-06-07 22:51:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 072051 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS NO LONGER TROPICAL. DEEP CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAN THE CYCLONE ITSELF...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEGUN TO LOSE DEFINITION. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS BEING DECLARED POST-TROPICAL...ADVISORIES FROM NHC WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1448 UTC. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANDREA CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES UP THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANDREA BEING STRETCHED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 24-48 HOURS...WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND ABSORBING ANDREA BY 72 HOURS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24 KT. ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED IN STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY SMALL...AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT EVEN THOUGH ANDREA HAS BECOME POST-TROPICAL...THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 36.1N 77.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 08/0600Z 39.3N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/1800Z 43.4N 67.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0600Z 46.0N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1800Z 46.9N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA (AT1/AL012013)
2013-06-07 22:50:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANDREA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...NHC ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 the center of ANDREA was located near 36.1, -77.8 with movement NE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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andrea
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-06-07 22:50:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 072050 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 2100 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 6 12 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 22 26 29 38 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 76 66 59 46 NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 5 6 4 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 5 5 3 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 40(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 32(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 33(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X 4( 4) 41(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 29(29) 18(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) YARMOUTH NS 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST JOHN NB 34 X 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) EASTPORT ME 34 X 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) HYANNIS MA 34 X 43(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) HYANNIS MA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 1 57(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 1 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTAUK POINT 34 3 26(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 8 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NEWARK NJ 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BALTIMORE MD 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) RICHMOND VA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) NORFOLK VA 34 62 X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) WALLOPS CDA 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) CAPE HATTERAS 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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andrea
Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Public Advisory Number 9
2013-06-07 22:50:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 072050 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 ...ANDREA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...NHC ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 77.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AS WELL AS COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...INCLUDING OTHER INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN THE MIDDLE OF PAMLICO SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH...85 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO COASTAL MAINE. STORM SURGE...LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NEW ENGLAND. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MARYLAND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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