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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-09-02 04:35:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 485 FOPZ11 KNHC 020235 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 2 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 66(69) 14(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 21(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 54(82) 1(83) X(83) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 22(49) 1(50) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-09-01 22:54:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 538 WTPZ41 KNHC 012054 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 Since the previous advisory, a well-defined closed eye has remained apparent in microwave satellite data, and a cloud-filled eye has appeared in visible satellite imagery during the past couple of hours. Satellite intensity estimated haven't changed since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 90 kt, which is supported by a 1501Z SATCON estimate of 88 kt and a Dvorak CI value of T5.0/90 kt. Norman's initial motion estimate is now 275/12 kt based on microwave and visible satellite eye position estimates. There are no significant changes to the previous track forecast and reasoning. The hurricane is expected to be steered by a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north, resulting in a westward motion for the next 12-24 hours, followed by a west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed. The latest model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track through 96 hours, with much less divergence after that compared to previous model runs. Therefore, the new forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and TVCE consensus track models. The GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting the 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear that has been affecting Norman to steadily decrease for the next 60-72 hours, possibly becoming near zero if the ECMWF upper-level wind forecasts verify. Since the hurricane is expected to remain over 27 deg C and warmer SSTs for the next 48 hours, only slow weakening is forecast and that is due mainly to occasional intrusions of drier and more stable air coming in from the northwest, where a large field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds is currently lurking close by. The HWRF and HMON models continue to forecast Norman to re-strengthen into a major hurricane during the next 24 hours, but this scenario is being discounted at this time due to Norman's proximity to the aforementioned stratocumulus cloud field. By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs should combine to induce more significant weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HCCA and IVCN consensus model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.3N 125.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.4N 130.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 18.2N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 19.1N 136.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 20.4N 142.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.4N 146.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 22.2N 149.6W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-09-01 22:53:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 20:53:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 20:53:02 GMT
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hurricane graphics
Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-09-01 22:52:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 208 FOPZ11 KNHC 012052 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 2 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 1 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 18(18) 53(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 70(78) 3(81) X(81) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) X(43) X(43) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 35(48) 3(51) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-09-01 22:51:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN HOLDING STEADY AS A CATEGORY-2 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 1 the center of Norman was located near 16.3, -125.1 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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