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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-09-01 16:54:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL A CATEGORY-2 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 1 the center of Norman was located near 16.2, -123.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 18
2018-09-01 16:54:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 801 WTPZ31 KNHC 011454 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 ...NORMAN WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL A CATEGORY-2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 123.7W ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 123.7 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion with an slight increase in forward speed is expected through early next week. On the forecast track, Norman will approach the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-09-01 16:53:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 941 WTPZ21 KNHC 011453 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.7W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.7W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.3N 125.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.9N 128.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 131.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 134.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 140.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 145.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 148.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 123.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-09-01 10:42:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 08:42:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Sep 2018 08:42:58 GMT
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-09-01 10:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 873 WTPZ41 KNHC 010834 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 Norman continues to weaken due to the effects of moderate northeasterly shear of about 20 kt, as analyzed in SHIPS diagnostics. The hurricane has taken on a traditional IR shear pattern structure, with a tight gradient of brightness temperatures observed up-shear of the estimated center position. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to drop and no longer support keeping Norman at major hurricane strength. The initial intensity has been lowered to 95 kt, just above the latest SATCON estimate, but this still could be generous. The shear affecting Norman is expected to continue for at least the next 24 h. Some of the dynamical models hint that the shear could relax between 24-48 h, which would likely bring an end to Norman's weakening trend. While it is not explicitly reflected in the intensity forecast, a decrease in shear could even allow the hurricane to briefly restrengthen. Recent microwave imagery indicates that the mid- to lower-level inner-core and eye of Norman are still intact. If this structure can survive the next 24 h of shear, reintensification would be more likely. By 72 h, the hurricane will reach drier, more stable air and moderate SSTs, and these factors will likely cause it to steadily weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The cyclone appears to have finally turned westward, and the initial motion is 265/7 kt. No significant changes have been made to the track forecast. Norman is still expected to move westward to west-northwestward for the next several days, steered primarily by an extensive deep-layer ridge to the north. The models remain in good agreement on the track of Norman throughout the forecast period, and the official track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.3N 123.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 16.3N 124.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 16.6N 126.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 17.3N 129.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.2N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 19.9N 139.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 21.0N 143.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 21.5N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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