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Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-08-31 22:35:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 20:35:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 21:34:20 GMT
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-08-31 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 824 WTPZ41 KNHC 312034 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 Satellite derived mid and upper tropospheric winds and the UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicate that the persistent northeasterly vertical shear has increased to 20-25 kt, and has continued to impede outer deep convective banding development in the northern portion of Norman's inner core. The cloud pattern has also become somewhat asymmetric (northeast to southwest). A series of recent microwave images, however, show that the eyewall is now closed, although the eye temperature has warmed a bit during the past 6 hours. The Dvorak satellite intensity classifications from TAFB and SAB also support these observations, and the initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt. Although there may still be some fluctuations in intensity, gradual weakening is forecast through day 5, primarily due to the shear predicted by the GFS and ECMWF Decay-SHIPS intensity models. Intrusion of stable air mass, beyond day 3, northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will also promote this weakening trend. The official intensity forecast has changed little from the previous advisory, and is still based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach and IVCN intensity models. The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 255/7 kt. An anchored mid- to upper-level ridge that stretches west-southwestward from the Baja California peninsula should steer Norman west-southwestward during the next 12 hours or so. Afterward, the southwestern-most segment of the ridge axis between Miriam and Norman weakens as Miriam continues on a northward track. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should influence Norman to turn back toward the west or west-northwest by early next week. Only slight along-track speed adjustments were made to this advisory, which follows a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 16.5N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 16.2N 122.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 16.2N 124.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 17.3N 129.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 18.9N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 141.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 20.9N 144.7W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-08-31 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 720 FOPZ11 KNHC 312033 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 2 50(52) 15(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 15N 125W 50 X 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 4(62) X(62) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 61(65) 5(70) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 3(33) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-08-31 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN WEAKENS SOME... ...STILL A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 the center of Norman was located near 16.5, -121.5 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 15
2018-08-31 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 610 WTPZ31 KNHC 312032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 ...NORMAN WEAKENS SOME... ...STILL A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 121.5W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 121.5 West. Norman is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west and west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected over the weekend and into next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Norman is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast, but Norman is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the early part of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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