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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-08-31 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 609 WTPZ21 KNHC 312032 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.5W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.5W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 121.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.2N 122.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 124.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 129.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.9N 136.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 141.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.9N 144.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 121.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-08-31 16:40:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 14:40:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 14:40:35 GMT
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-08-31 16:38:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 619 WTPZ41 KNHC 311438 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018 Norman appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Although a lack of earlier microwave imagery hasn't helped to support this speculation, enhanced infrared BD-Curve images, however, revealed a collapse of the inner core in the northeast quadrant several hours ago. Currently, that portion of the eyewall has begun to fill in with a solid ring completely surrounding the eye, albeit, rather thin. Consequently, subjective and objective T-numbers, as well as an earlier SATCON analysis, support a slight decrease of the initial intensity to 115 kt. Further slow weakening is forecast through the entire period, although there could be fluctuations in the short-term due to the aforementioned inner core structure evolution. There also appears to be some modest northeasterly shear impinging the northeast portion of the cyclone, which could hamper strengthening. The Decay SHIPS intensity model indicates that the shear will persist during the next couple of days. Through the remaining part of the forecast, decreasing SSTs and the intrusion of a more stable/drier environment from the north should lead to further weakening. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 245/7 kt. The cyclone's motion is currently influenced by a northeast-southwest oriented mid-to-upper tropospheric ridge residing between Hurricane Miriam to the west, and Norman to the east. This current motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours, or so. Afterward, the ridge between the two tropical cyclones is expected to weaken as Miriam continues on a generally northward track. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause Norman to turn to the west and then west-northwest with an increase in forward speed. The official forecast has changed little over the past 6 hours and is based on a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 16.7N 120.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 16.4N 122.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 16.2N 123.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 16.3N 125.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 16.8N 128.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 18.3N 134.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.5N 140.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 20.5N 144.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-08-31 16:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 556 FOPZ11 KNHC 311437 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 1 28(29) 41(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 125W 50 X 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 12(36) X(36) X(36) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 1(24) X(24) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 18(55) X(55) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) X(21) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 10(57) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 6(23) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-08-31 16:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORMAN STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 the center of Norman was located near 16.7, -120.8 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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