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Hurricane Norman Graphics
2018-08-30 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 20:39:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 20:39:58 GMT
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-30 22:37:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 167 WTPZ41 KNHC 302037 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 Norman is a very impressive hurricane in visible and infrared satellite imagery. The hurricane's CDO is very symmetric and has a well-defined 20-nmi-wide eye. The surrounding ring of cold cloud tops have warmed slightly, but the various satellite intensity estimates are still catching up to the improved satellite presentation and range from 127 kt to 135 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is set at 130 kt, and it appears that Norman's rapid strengthening phase is easing. There is still a potential for some additional increase in intensity within the next 12 hour or so, however, eyewall replacement probabilities from UW/CIMSS indicate a very high likelihood of an eyewall replacement beginning within the next 12-24 hours which will probably lead to some fluctuations in intensity. Slightly lower sea surface temperatures and a subtle increase in northeasterly shear are expected to cause a gradual decrease in wind speed over the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening but it does not weaken Norman as quickly as the statistical guidance, and it is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. Recent satellite fixes indicated that Norman is moving slightly south of due west. A strong mid- to upper-level ridge that extends west-southwestward from the Baja California peninsula should steer Norman west-southwestward during the next 36 hours. After that time, the ridge changes orientation which is expected to cause Norman to turn back toward the west or west-northwest by early next week. The track guidance is once again tightly clustered but the overall model enveloped has shifted slightly southward. As a result, the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction to be closer to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 17.5N 118.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 17.2N 120.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 16.8N 121.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 16.2N 125.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 17.1N 129.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 18.9N 135.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 20.2N 140.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-08-30 22:36:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 811 FOPZ11 KNHC 302036 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 2100 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 49(65) 7(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 6(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 6(37) X(37) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 16(34) X(34) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 11(59) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 7(29) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)
2018-08-30 22:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...INTENSITY OF POWERFUL HURRICANE NORMAN LEVELS OFF... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 the center of Norman was located near 17.5, -118.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 11
2018-08-30 22:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 783 WTPZ31 KNHC 302036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018 ...INTENSITY OF POWERFUL HURRICANE NORMAN LEVELS OFF... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 118.8W ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 118.8 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Friday. A turn back toward the west and and west-northwest is expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Norman is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight and early Friday. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by Friday night or Saturday, however, Norman is expected to remain a very powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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