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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 33
2015-10-05 22:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 052050 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 Joaquin's cloud pattern has actually improved somewhat since the previous advisory with a cloud-filled eye having briefly appeared in visible satellite imagery. Also, the eye has remained distinct on the Bermuda radar at an altitude above 32,000 feet. Satellite intensity estimates are T4.5/77 kt from SAB, T4.3/72 kt from the NHC AODT technique, and T4.0/65 kt from TAFB. Based on the distinct eye feature noted in visible satellite imagery and radar data, the intensity is being maintained at 75 kt for this advisory. This intensity is also supported by dropsonde data from the NASA WB-57 aircraft, which has been conducting research in Joaquin for the Office of Naval Operation's Tropical Cyclone Intensity experiment. The initial motion estimate is 030/10 kt. Joaquin is rounding the northwestern periphery of a weak ridge located to its southeast, and will be entering the faster mid-latitude westerlies by Tuesday morning. The result should be a gradual turn toward the northeast accompanied by a modest increase in forward speed tonight and Tuesday, followed by more significant acceleration toward the east-northeast at forward speeds of near 30 kt by Wednesday. The official forecast track is a tad to the left of the previous advisory track, and basically lies down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope through 36 hours. At 48-120 hours, the extratropical forecast track is based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. The deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain at less than 20 kt for the next 24 hours or so, which should allow for Joaquin to only slightly weaken. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly vertical wind shear is forecast by the global and regional models to increase to more than 30 kt when Joaquin will be moving over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures. The expected result should be steady weakening and a transition to a large and expanding extratropical low pressure system over the much cooler waters of the north Atlantic by 48 hours. However, the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting that Joaquin could get a baroclinic boost as it interacts with a frontal system and strong jetstream and, as a result, the intensity forecast does not show the typical rapid decay rate of a tropical cyclone moving over 17C-20C SSTs on days 3-5. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the intensity consensus model IVCN through 36 hours, and then is based on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center for the 48-120 hour period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 35.8N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 37.1N 61.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 38.7N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 40.0N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 41.4N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1800Z 44.0N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 45.6N 20.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 48.0N 14.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2015-10-05 22:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 052049 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-05 22:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 5 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 35.8, -64.0 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 33
2015-10-05 22:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 052049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 ...JOAQUIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.8N 64.0W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 64.0 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast by Tuesday evening. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will continue to move farther away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Tuesday morning, and Joaquin is expected to transition to a large extratropical low pressure system on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at the Bermuda International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could affect Bermuda for a couple of more hours. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Bermuda and portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. Swells are affecting much of the east coast of the United States and will spread northward along the coast of Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is located well to the east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 33
2015-10-05 22:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 052049 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 64.0W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 160SE 160SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 480SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 64.0W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 64.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.1N 61.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 38.7N 57.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 170SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 40.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 41.4N 43.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 240SE 240SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 44.0N 28.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 110SE 110SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 220SE 220SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 45.6N 20.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 48.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 64.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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