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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-05 01:47:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 23:47:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 21:05:49 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-05 01:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WHILE PASSING JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Oct 4 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 32.6, -65.9 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 29A
2015-10-05 01:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 042344 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 ...JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WHILE PASSING JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 65.9W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 65.9 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn toward to the northeast and east-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass just northwest of Bermuda tonight, and begin to move away from the island on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). During the past hour, a 10-minute average wind speed of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) were reported at the Bermuda International Airport. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda through tonight, with possible gusts to near hurricane force. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 29
2015-10-04 23:04:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 042104 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 The satellite cloud pattern of Joaquin, especially the inner-core convection, has continued to erode during the past several hours. The Bermuda radar also indicates a very ragged-looking banded eye pattern. The initial intensity has been decreased to 85 kt for this advisory based on some dropsonde data from a WB-57 research aircraft that is part of the NASA Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment. Joaquin is moving to the north-northeast at 015/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Joaquin is expected to move toward the north-northeast tonight and and turn toward the northeast on Monday as the cyclone moves around the western periphery of a ridge located to its east. By days 2-5, the hurricane should accelerate to the east-northeast as the cyclone moves into the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model guidance envelope. Joaquin should continue to steadily weaken during the next 48 hours or so, followed by transition to an extratropical cyclone on days 3-5 as the cyclone moves over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic where the vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the consensus model IVCN through 48 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center for days 3-5 when the cyclone is forecast to be an extratropical low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 32.2N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 33.8N 65.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 35.6N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 37.3N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 39.2N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 42.5N 42.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1800Z 46.1N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1800Z 49.7N 18.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-04 22:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAGGED EYE OF JOAQUIN PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 4 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 32.2, -66.4 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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