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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 28
2015-10-04 16:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 041452 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 The overall cloud pattern of Joaquin has changed little since the previous advisory. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt and SFMR surface wind values of 90 kt during its mission so far this morning, so the initial intensity has been decreased to 95 kt for this advisory. A ragged eye feature is just becoming apparent on the Bermuda radar, with strong inner-core rain bands currently located less than 50 nmi southwest of the island. Recon center fixes indicate that Joaquin has made the expected turn toward the north-northeast, and is now moving 030/15 kt. Joaquin is forecast to move around the western portion of a modest mid-level ridge to its east and ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer low located over the southeastern United States. This is expected to result in the hurricane moving toward the north-northeast today and tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the short term forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to pass about 60 nmi west and northwest of Bermuda during the next 12-24 hours. By days 2-5, Joaquin is forecast to accelerate to the east-northeast as the cyclone gets caught up in the fast mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, albeit slightly slower, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model guidance. Excluding a slight respite this afternoon, the vertical wind shear is forecast to increase during the next two days, with the mid-level environment expected to dry out with humidity values decreasing to around 50 percent. These less favorable conditions should result in gradual weakening for the next 48 hours or so, followed by more significant weakening on days 3-5 when Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic where SSTs are 20C-24C and vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. Extratropical transition is forecast to occur by 96 hours, but it is possible that it could sooner by around 72 hours as per guidance from the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical models, and the EMCWF model. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the consensus model IVCN through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center at 96 h and 120 h when the cyclone is expected to be an extratropical low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 31.0N 66.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 34.8N 64.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 36.6N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 38.4N 58.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 42.3N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 46.4N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 51.4N 19.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-04 16:52:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 14:52:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2015 14:50:49 GMT
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2015-10-04 16:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 041451 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 43 7(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BERMUDA 64 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-04 16:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY... ...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 4 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 31.0, -66.8 with movement NNE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 28
2015-10-04 16:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 041451 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 ...CENTER OF JOAQUIN FORECAST TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TODAY... ...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 66.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of eye of Hurricane Joaquin was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Joaquin is now moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass just west of Bermuda this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda tonight. Recent data from the hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda later this morning, with hurricane conditions expected by this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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