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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 21

2015-10-03 05:00:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030300 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 Fixes from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate the core of Joaquin has gradually begun to move away from the central Bahamas. There were a couple of SFMR winds earlier which suggested that the winds could be 115 kt in the southeastern eyewall, but the cloud pattern has deteriorated since these winds were measured. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 110 kt. The eye was over San Salvador Island for several hours where the pressure dropped to near 944 mb. The Director of the Meteorological Service of the Bahamas reported to NHC that there was considerable damage on some islands of the central Bahamas. Joaquin could fluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24 hours, but given that the shear is expected to increase, the NHC forecast calls for very gradual weakening. Joaquin is anticipated to lose tropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period. Joaquin has recurved and is now moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 9 kt. Joaquin is embedded within the southwesterly flow between a deepening trough over the eastern Unites States and a a weakening subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. As the trough swings eastward, Joaquin will become fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. This flow pattern will steer Joaquin to the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. The multi-model consensus has shifted eastward tonight, and consequently the NHC forecast was also shifted eastward a little. However, the NHC forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope, and additional eastward adjustments of the track could be necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 24.7N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 25.7N 72.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 33.0N 67.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 37.0N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 41.5N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 46.5N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2015-10-03 05:00:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 030259 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 16(16) 37(53) 9(62) X(62) X(62) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)

2015-10-03 04:59:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOAQUIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 24.7, -74.0 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 21

2015-10-03 04:59:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030259 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 ...JOAQUIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 74.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF SAN SALVADOR ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued all watches and warnings for the northwestern Bahamas. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For Bermuda, the tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 74.0 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will continue to move away from the Bahamas. Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter plane was 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions of the central Bahamas for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Water levels should begin to subside overnight and on Saturday as Joaquin moves away from the Bahamas. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over the Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 25 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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