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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 20
2014-10-06 16:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061433 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1500 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 117.4W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 117.4W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.9N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.0N 116.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.1N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.4N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 117.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-10-06 10:42:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060841 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 Simon's cloud pattern continues to deteroriate. Microwave data indicate that the cyclone's low-level center is exposed to the southwest of the main convective mass due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. The remaining central convection is no longer very deep either, with cloud top temperatures having risen to -50 to -60 deg C. A large plume of stratiform rain and high clouds also extends well north and east of the center, though even this area has been shrinking. The initial wind speed is reduced to 50 kt based on a blend of Final T-numbers of 3.0/45 kt and 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, which should provide a reasonable estimate of the intensity in cases of rapid weakening. Extremely strong west-southwesterly vertical shear of 30-40 kt will cause a decoupling of the cyclone during the next day or two, while very unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should result in a loss of deep convection. This should cause the rapid weakening trend observed during the past 24 hours to continue, and remnant low status is now predicted in 36 hours or perhaps sooner. The remnant circulation could dissipate prior to reaching the Baja California peninsula, as indicated by the latest SHIPS model output, or in the very least arrive in a greatly weakened state. The NHC wind speed forecast is largely an update of the previous one in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. Simon has turned northward, or 360/06, around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge extending westward near the southwestern coast of Mexico. A shortwave trough moving toward southern California should turn the cyclone north-northeastward in the next 12 to 24 hours, but Simon will have just begun to recurve when it shears apart. The track guidance shows the remnant circulation continuing north-northeastward at varying forward speeds, with the GFS still much faster than the ECMWF and UKMET. The NHC track forecast is very near the previous one and the multi-model consensus through 48 hours but is slower after that time to acknowledge the possibility that a weaker system than depicted in global model fields might not reach the northern Baja California peninsula. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 24.4N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 25.3N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 26.4N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 27.6N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 28.8N 115.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z 30.2N 114.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm SIMON Graphics
2014-10-06 10:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Oct 2014 08:35:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Oct 2014 08:34:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2014-10-06 10:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060834 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0900 UTC MON OCT 06 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Summary for Tropical Storm SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-06 10:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE TURNING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 the center of SIMON was located near 24.4, -117.6 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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