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Summary for Hurricane SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-04 19:53:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 the center of SIMON was located near 20.3, -114.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane SIMON Update Statement
2014-10-04 19:53:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ64 KNHC 041753 TCUEP4 HURRICANE SIMON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. THIS MAKES SIMON THE EIGHTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 114.6W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane SIMON Graphics
2014-10-04 17:09:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Oct 2014 14:47:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Oct 2014 15:05:43 GMT
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Hurricane SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-10-04 16:49:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041448 TCDEP4 HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014 Infrared satellite imagery indicates that Simon has undergone rapid intensification during the past several hours. A small eye has formed, and the cloud tops surrounding the eye are in the -75C to -85C range. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 102 kt from TAFB and 90 kt from SAB, and the latest estimated from the CIMSS ADT is 90 kt. Based on these, the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt, and this could be conservative. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Simon later today. The initial motion is now 295/11. Simon is expected to move west-northwest to northwestward for the next 36 hours or so as is approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge to its north. After that, the system is expected to turn northward and northeastward, although there remains significant spread in the track guidance on when and how fast this will occur. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean, NAVGEM, and the GFDL show Simon moving quickly to the northeast, eventually making landfall on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models show the turn occurring later and farther west, and these models forecast the cyclone to dissipate over water west of the Baja California peninsula. The forecast track continues to compromise between these two extremes in showing a slow northeastward motion after recurvature. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and is slower than the model consensus. How long the current rapid intensification will continue is uncertain, as Simon is now moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures. The new intensity forecast follows the guidance trend of showing 12 hours more strengthening. Simon is now forecast to become a major hurricane, and it would not be a surprise if it reached a higher peak intensity than currently forecast. After 12 hours, cooler waters under the forecast track should result in a weakening trend, and this should become more pronounced after 48 hours due to increasing shear. The new intensity forecast shows rapid weakening after 48 hours, with Simon expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. It should be noted that, if Simon follows the GFS forecast track, it would likely weaken more slowly than currently forecast since it would stay over warmer water and encounters less shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 20.2N 113.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 21.0N 115.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 22.2N 116.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 23.1N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 23.7N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2014-10-04 16:49:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 041448 PWSEP4 HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1500 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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