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Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Graphics
2018-09-19 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 02:36:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Sep 2018 03:21:29 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 26
2018-09-19 04:35:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 630 WTNT45 KNHC 190235 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 During the past couple of days, Joyce had been producing patches of deep convection that would quickly shear off due to strong westerly winds aloft. Each convective burst appeared weaker than the previous one, and during the past 12-18 hours, the circulation has been nearly devoid of deep convection. Therefore, Joyce no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The initial wind speed is held at 25 kt, in agreement with a recent ASCAT pass around 2200Z that showed maximum winds in the 20-25 kt range. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken and ultimately dissipate in a couple of days due to dry and stable air, cool SSTs, and moderate to strong westerly shear. Joyce is moving south-southwestward at 7 kt on the east side of a low- to mid-level ridge. A turn to the southwest is expected on Wednesday as the ridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and that motion should continue until the remnant low dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 30.4N 27.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 19/1200Z 29.9N 28.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/0000Z 29.4N 29.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1200Z 28.9N 31.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-19 04:33:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE IS NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 18 the center of Joyce was located near 30.4, -27.9 with movement SSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Public Advisory Number 26
2018-09-19 04:33:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 755 WTNT35 KNHC 190232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 ...JOYCE IS NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 27.9W ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 27.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the south-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A southwestward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate within a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Joyce. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2018-09-19 04:33:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 773 FONT15 KNHC 190232 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC WED SEP 19 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI