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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Graphics
2019-09-25 22:40:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 20:40:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 21:24:51 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 34
2019-09-25 22:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 716 WTNT45 KNHC 252038 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Multiple scatterometer passes over Jerry indicate that the cyclone no longer has sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore Jerry is now a remnant low, and the Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. However, wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible on the island during the next few hours, especially at elevated observing sites. Based on the scatterometer data, the current intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The low-cloud swirl is becoming less well-defined, and since the system will continue moving through a hostile environment of strong shear and dry mid-level air, steady weakening is likely. The cyclone should dissipate in 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus. The system is moving east-northeastward at a slightly faster clip, or 070/10 kt. A gradual turn to the east and east-southeast is forecast as the cyclone moves along the southern edge of the band of mid-latitude westerlies, and then turns to the right along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone before dissipating. This is the last advisory on Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 32.2N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0600Z 32.8N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 33.7N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 34.7N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 35.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2019-09-25 22:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 697 FONT15 KNHC 252038 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-25 22:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY NO LONGER HAS SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Jerry was located near 32.2, -65.6 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Public Advisory Number 34
2019-09-25 22:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 252038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY NO LONGER HAS SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 65.6W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 65.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the east and east-southeast is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or over Bermuda in a few hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible over Bermuda during the next several hours, especially at elevated sites. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Pasch
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