je.st
news
Tag: jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 28
2019-09-24 10:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 240830 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Conventional satellite imagery and a series of recent microwave images show that Jerry's cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate. Diminishing deep convection is now confined to the north portion of the cyclone. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS respectively, support decreasing the initial intensity to 50 kt. Strong vertical shear and an intruding dry, stable thermodynamic atmosphere associated with a high amplitude mid- to upper-level trough moving off of the east coast of the U.S. is finally taking its toll on Jerry. Weakening has begun, and the statistical- dynamical intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale deterministic models show the aforementioned inhibiting environment persisting through the entire 5 day period. Consequently, further weakening is expected, and Jerry should degenerate into a remnant low in 4 days, with dissipation occuring over the weekend, and this scenario is consistent with global model forecasts. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. Jerry will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical ridge through most of today, then turn northeastward later tonight within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by the previously mentioned approaching trough. Around mid-period, Jerry should move east-northeastward within the deep-layer mid-latitude zonal flow, then a little to the south of east in the peripheral flow of the subtropical high anchored to the southwest of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is somewhat slower beyond the 24 hour period than the previous advisory to align more with the reliable TVCA multi-model consensus. Wind radii were adjusted based on 0150 UTC MetOp scatterometer data, and the forecast wind radii for the 24 and 36 hour periods are based on the global and regional model RVCN consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 30.6N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 31.7N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 32.7N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 33.6N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 34.9N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z 35.0N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
2019-09-24 10:31:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:31:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:31:01 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
jerry
tropical
Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2019-09-24 10:30:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 498 FONT15 KNHC 240830 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 4 9(13) 24(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-24 10:30:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WEAKENING JERRY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Jerry was located near 29.8, -68.4 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
jerry
tropical
Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 28
2019-09-24 10:30:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240829 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...WEAKENING JERRY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 68.4W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east- northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] next »