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Hurricane Jerry Graphics
2019-09-21 05:00:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:00:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:24:53 GMT
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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-09-21 04:59:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210259 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Jerry has been displaying a classic bursting convective pattern with a nearly circular CDO that expanded over the circulation since the last advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission that just arrived in Jerry indicated that the center is farther northeast than previously estimated, which appears coincident with the location of the most recent bursts of convection. Since subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 61 kt to 77 kt, the initial intensity remains 70 kt. This intensity could be adjusted based on what the plane finds while investigating the circulation. The central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb based on the center drop from the plane. The hurricane is still moving quickly west-northwestward with an initial motion of 295/15 kt. The track forecast is fairly straightforward. Jerry is approaching a break in the subtropical ridge, created by a deep-layer trough currently moving across the northwestern Atlantic. This pattern is expected to cause Jerry to gradually recurve around the ridge during the next 5 days, with its forward motion reaching a minimum between 48-72 hours when it moves near the ridge axis. There is very good agreement among the track guidance on this scenario, and the only notable spread is related to the system's forward speed when it accelerates on day 5. The consensus aids are holding tough on a relatively consistent trajectory, so little change was made from the previous official forecast. Dropsonde data from a NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission indicate that anticyclonic flow continues over the hurricane at the 200-mb outflow level (except it's restricted a bit to the west), but 15-25 kt of northeasterly flow is cutting through the circulation just below 250 mb. Despite this flow, Jerry's structure does not appear to have degraded too much. Since the hurricane appears that it will move beneath an upper-level anticyclone in about 24 hours, its intensity may not decrease too much over the next several days. And despite an increase in westerly shear after 48 hours, enhanced upper-level divergence to the east of an upper-level trough could offset the potential for weakening. Accounting for uncertainties, the NHC intensity forecast maintains a fairly steady strength for the entire forecast period, keeping Jerry as a hurricane for the next 5 days. This forecast is close to the HCCA model and the simple consensus aids, but it's notable that it's up to 20 kt lower than the statistical-dynamical models by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 20.5N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 21.4N 64.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 24.0N 68.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 25.3N 68.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 30.8N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 34.5N 62.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-21 04:58:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 20 the center of Jerry was located near 20.5, -62.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2019-09-21 04:58:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 210258 PWSAT5 HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 34(68) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 15
2019-09-21 04:58:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210258 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 62.8W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM N OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 62.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will pass well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, pass well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western Atlantic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the several days, and Jerry could remain a hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over Barbuda, St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is also forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with maximum amounts of 3 inches, across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas during the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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