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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 32
2019-09-25 10:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250854 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Jerry has lacked organized deep convection since around 1500 UTC yesterday. It is therefore now designated as a post-tropical cyclone. However, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Bermuda, and advisories will continue to be issued on Jerry until it no longer poses any threat to the island. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continued to fly through Jerry after the last advisory. The plane reported that Jerry's wind field has become quite asymmetric, with no tropical-storm-force winds in the western half of the cyclone. That said, on its last pass through the southeast quadrant of the cyclone the plane reported max flight level winds of 55 kt at 925 mb and believable SFMR winds of 40 kt. The intensity of Jerry is therefore maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. With no deep convection to sustain it, the cyclone should gradually spin down during the next few days. The dynamical models indicate that Jerry will dissipate in about 4 days and the NHC forecast does as well. A mid-latitude trough to the north has caused Jerry to turn northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/6 kt. The models are in good agreement that the post-tropical low will continue generally northeastward today and tomorrow, steered by low-level southwesterly flow. On this track, the cyclone will pass very near Bermuda later today. The models are in excellent agreement on the track of Jerry, and only small adjustments were made to the previous NHC track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 31.8N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2019-09-25 10:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 250853 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 13 37(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BERMUDA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
2019-09-25 10:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Jerry was located near 31.8, -67.9 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Public Advisory Number 32
2019-09-25 10:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250853 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 67.9W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 67.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 32
2019-09-25 10:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250852 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 67.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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