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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 18
2019-09-21 22:39:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 212039 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.5W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.5W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 110.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
2019-09-21 16:55:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 14:55:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:38:13 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-21 16:47:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Mario was located near 18.9, -110.5 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 17
2019-09-21 16:47:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 211447 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...MARIO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 110.5W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Mario. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.5 West. Mario is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slightly faster northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Socorro Island has recently reported a wind gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-09-21 16:47:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Geostationary satellite imagery shows the low-level center of Mario is exposed to the northeast of the main convective mass, which is the result of strong northeasterly shear. An average of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates, and UW-CIMSS SATCON yields an initial wind speed of 45 kt. Hopefully, ASCAT data will provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity later today. The vertical shear over Mario is forecast to remain moderate to strong during the next 24 hours while Mario heads toward cooler waters. This should result in gradual weakening. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease but the system will be moving into a more stable air mass and reach the 26C isotherm by 48 hours. Continued weakening is forecast and Mario is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. Mario is progressing slowly north-northwestward, or 330 degrees at 4 kt. The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on a northwesterly track around the western side of a mid-level ridge. As Mario weakens, it should turn northward and slow down with the low-level steering flow. The latest consensus aids were a little west of the previous track, so the latest official forecast has been nudged in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 18.9N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 25.2N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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